Guest cindona

Are You Still In?

619 posts in this topic

I'm not a doom and gloom guy. I've made my fair share in up and down markets...there is always opportunity. However, I would caution against taking a single perspective on the market.....there is merit in multiple views of what is going on.....I suggest one may want to study some of the contrarian articles that Mauldin reprints. There are some interesting perspectives there. Also, while one might feel that Mauldin is a "perma bear" he is not always that - if you study his data longer term you might find differently. However, he certainly has a bear view right now. IMO with good reasoning. That does not mean the market will go down though....the market rises during bear periods as well as goes down....and there is much opportunity.

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I suggest one may want to study some of the contrarian articles that Mauldin reprints. There are some interesting perspectives there. Also, while one might feel that Mauldin is a "perma bear" he is not always that - if you study his data longer term you might find differently. However, he certainly has a bear view right now. IMO with good reasoning. That does not mean the market will go down though....the market rises during bear periods as well as goes down....and there is much opportunity.

 

I think you are correct.

 

***Warning*** The following is theory. :) I think Mauldin is better understood as a "secular bear," not a "perma bear." That is, he believes we have been in a secular (long term) bear market since 2000. Prior to 2000 I think he would argue we were in a secular bull market from roughly 1982 to 2000. (But I am putting words into his mouth because I don't think he tends to use these exact terms.) He may be even less inclined to use the terms "cyclical bear" and "cyclical bull" markets, which are short term markets.. But others do use these terms.

 

A pretty thorough explanation of these terms can be found in this recent article by Adam Hamilton. So in Hamilton's words, we are in a secular bear market which started in 2000. And within that long run secular bear we are currently also in a short run, cyclical bull market that started in 2009. Not surprisingly he argues that prior to this cyclical bull we were in a cyclical bear market from late 2007 to 2009.

 

All of this theory is not just about defining terms, but it is trying to make sense of past short term and long term bull and bear markets. You don't have to completely buy into this theory to actually get something out of it. The theory helps you to think. That is the fun of theory, at least I think so.

 

Cheers John

Edited by mcbockalds

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I'm still 100% in cash in all my accounts and have been since the end of March. I lost out on about 5% of potential market gain by not being invested (I sold some in Jan and Feb at lower prices than my biggest sale in March and collected interest that was lower than the dividends afterwards).

 

Last Friday, I bought SPY puts at $140 for Dec 22 and $135 on Jan 19. The last time I bet that the market was going to go down (spring of 1999) was a few months before the dot com bubble burst. But I shorted 4 internet stocks and lost a LOT of money. At least this time, I've limited my exposure by using puts instead shorts.

 

Dan

 

A brief update. If I had sold all of my puts at Friday's market close price, I would have made a 17% profit. I haven't sold any of them so far.

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Dan, I will share with you the one thing I have learned about investing that keeps me out of trouble. "Don't be greedy".

 

Every time I break that rule I regret it. I rarely regret the opposite - selling a position before I think I've squeezed the last dime out of it.

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A saying in the business "Hogs get slaughtered"

 

I mostly hear it as "The bears make money, the bulls make money, the pigs make none"

 

Same idea.

ed

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Excerpt:

"At a New York City event, Tesla Motors’ Model S was named Car of the Year by Motor Trend magazine.

 

The selection of the Model S marked the first time a vehicle with a non-combustion engine won this prestigious award in its 63-year history.

 

Even more amazing than the win by Tesla’s electric car is that it won by unanimous decision."

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/romney-biggest-loser-scores-huge-050000067.html

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Dan, I will share with you the one thing I have learned about investing that keeps me out of trouble. "Don't be greedy".

 

Every time I break that rule I regret it. I rarely regret the opposite - selling a position before I think I've squeezed the last dime out of it.

 

These clichés about the bulls, bears, and hogs and the transition from "seeking a fair profit" to being "greedy" all sound so sensible. But, please explain exactly how you define when you've crossed that threshold. I've never found an implementable strategy or rule for making this important decision. Unless you can define how this decision is reached the "advice" is pretty much useless.

---Ron

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Hey guys!

 

Aside from being named car of the year, and all the accolades, the stock is climbing pretty fast again. I am long term so won't be selling but it looks like it may pass the big 40 finally. There were so many folks shorting it that they may have pulled out finally once they saw that Tesla was in the black Several folks here played Tesla with me and if any of you are still in with Tesla it is looking good.

 

Back a while I mentioned that the dip was likely the last real buy opportunity for awhile. No gloating here just positive news not negative. It is no surprise to me as I have been saying all along what would be happening before during and after the Model S launch. I can't gloat about what I already was sure of.

I just popped in to let all know that Tesla's arrogant world changing, history making, CEO, Elon Musk, has two other companies, both of which are also disruptive in their approach.

 

Solar City was about to IPO, but postponed, and I think I know why. Solar City was positioned as an installer in a world glut and lowest prices ever for solar panels. Their IPO would have made them the second largest solar company ion the world. However with the fiscal cliff controversies flying I would hold back to see which way the wind blows before i went forward with an IPO for a company that would do well with Government subsidies to individuals for solar and green incentives.

 

SpaceX just got the first ever two contracts from the Air Force ever awarded outside the Boeing Lockheed consortium for launches.

 

Insofar as my listing above that he is world changing, he invented PayPal, and that has changed the world and online commerce forever. He made history being the first ever private spacecraft to dock with the ISS successfully. He changed the world when he not only built the first highway capable high performance long range electrical car two years before any weak economy car looking and driving EVs came from the big three once they saw Tesla actually doing it, but he actually put it into production and sold every one of them for the first two years of production. And he took payment in full up front on those for the first year.

 

I am only letting others who may not be looking at what is being done, know where to look.

 

Space X has not IPO'd yet and has contract from governments and companies all over the world now.

 

Exciting times.

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RV

 

Motorweek had a Tesla sedan on Sunday. Nice looking car. A guy in Connecticut bought it in California and drove it home.

 

Newt

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Now that would have been a great cross country trip Newt! I wonder if he was the first ever to cross the continent in an EV? By the time I could afford their third stage consumer priced models they will likely have most of the nation covered with their fast 30 minute chargers that are free for Teslas.

 

I have to pause to pop the bubble a lot of folks operate in when talking about EVs.

 

The first is the myth that it can't go long range for trips and that the recharging infrastructure is not in place. Back when cars first started it would have been much faster if there were cans of fuel and a dipper in every home to power anything gasoline but it took too long without drive up larger volume pumps. There is electric everywhere to charge, and planned free stations. These fasr recharge stations are solar, require no tanks, bio hazards, no delivery trucks, and could be placed in neighborhoods eventually, as the vehicles that use them are silent, and emit no noxious gases.

 

Besides, I am no longer 25 years old when I thought driving non-stop for 22 hours from Co. Springs, to Shreveport for the holidays. I need a 30 minute break after three hours behind the wheel. When fulltiming 200 miles a day behind the wheel was enough. That was 15 years ago when I was first retired at 45. Today if I drove for eight hours I'd need assistance to get out I'be so stiff and sore! :lol:

 

Put another way. I remember when we did Alaska as a two rig caravan with another couple, using the AlCan on the way up, and the Cassiar on the way back. We worried that diesel would be available every 250 miles or so because we had one ton duallys that had 30 gallon tanks and got 10 miles per gallon towing heavy in 1999. But we never even thought about electricity. We were always able to plug in our rigs, even though, like an EV, we needed bigger cables for power and bigger plugs, plus higher amperage than most homes or fuel stations were equipped to provide. The electric is there. All they are lacking are the wiring and outlet pedestals, just like RV electrical hookups but different volt / amps.

 

The electricity and infrastructure is already in place. Like when we installed a 30 and later 50 amp box at our family land to park on for a few months every winter, the infrastructure even in rural setting is already there.

 

Now that charge times are down to 30 mins for trips, and they already have the California corridor supplied with free solar charging stations, and plan nationwide free charging stations for their cars, the adoption rates will climb as fast as my stock.

 

Or not. ;)

Edited by RV

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All of the brouhaha here kind of reminds of a Robert A. Heinlein quote.

 

“Don't ever become a pessimist, Ira; a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun--and neither can stop the march of events.”

 

Robert A. Heinlein

 

TANSTAAFL

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I think that I'll take all of my money out and go buy gold to bury! ^_^

 

Gold! Now THERE is a good investment (he says with sarcasm). :)

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Before you rush out to buy the gold, please be aware that the price of gold has dropped quite a bit as the price of the dollar has gone down and the euro has been saved for the time being. Nothing is ever as simple as it may seem.

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Although no one specifically asked, now is the time to be planning to get back into the market. I say planning because one of two things will happen. The market will take off in the early Jan.Feb.Mar or the market will drastically drop in early Jan.Feb.Mar.

If it takes off, you might want to be in a position to get back in where there might be a nice return to be made for the year.

If it drops, you want to be in a position to buy low.

If you do some planning now on what might be good to buy (either way) you will be ahead of a lot of people.

 

Two things to think about while you plan.

1. A lot of funds owe a lot of Apple stock and if they start selling it off, that will create a lot of capital gains next year. You will be paying the CG even if you didn't get the rise in the stock.

2. After a lot of reading, it is for sure that no fund can beat the market year in and year out. Indexing is the only thing that can match the markets.

Edited by TheDuke

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Pre-election was a no-brainer for me. . .market goes up, I averaged out.

Now, with a lot of fear in the market place. . .

It looks like time to start averaging in.

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Probably will see a lot of people taking capital gains (like Apple stock) in the next week - in anticipation of a rise in the CG rates next year. Also, a lot of companies (like Wal-Mart) are paying dividends this month, again in anticipation of dividend rates going up next year. Plus mix in the fear of the fiscal curb and it should be an interesting week to watch.

 

Barb

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Folks think that I have rocks in my head, but I only have a 10% exposure to the market thru a lifecycle fund...the rest in cash. Since I'm about 2 year away from retirement and still getting the employer match on my 401K contributions I figure I don't want to risk any losses. When I exit, I plan on tapping my 401K funds first, letting my pension mature since its guaranteed to grow at 5% . I realize I may be leaving money on the table by not participating in the market, but I can sleep at night. I don't have any risk tolerance at all....once retired will move funds into some type of guaranteed immediate payout annuity.

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I don't know who you work for but I would move my 401k out to a national broker immediately upon retiring. Depending on who your company uses for the 401K, you should be able to put the money into the same exact or very similar funds. This creates two things, you won't be dependent on your old company doing your business, and also you will probably get a little better return as there would be no internal fees that your company now pays (you pay actually)for managing the 401k. There are too many instances of companies raiding pension and 401k systems when they need money. Sure it is against the law but when has that every stopped someone from doing it.

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