Guest cindona

Are You Still In?

645 posts in this topic

As of today, any gains the market made this year have been erased. The DOW is down -369 points today alone. Jobs numbers come out tomorrow, and economists are fearful those numbers will not be good, which could mean the skidding will continue as well.

Some here had talked about getting out of the stock market, and I am curious. Did you get out? If so, what are you putting the money in? Gold is continuing its climb, as is silver. We've got some of both but have had it for several years and have not purchased any recently. I'd be interested in others opinions on both.

 

RV- You mentioned Tesla. They are not looking good today.

 

It could be a -400 point drop today before the market closes. Scary.

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I told my broker a week ago to call me if and when the market fell to 11,500 - she and I just got off the phone, done deal a chunk of equities now in a guaranteed 3% return while the storm blows over. The old saying; "those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it" rang in my ears for the last few days. At least at the end of the day that part of the nest egg is tucked where it is safer. I remember when it fell in '08 and as I recall it dropped like a rock in just 8 days. Since stock sales are at the end of the day and if the employment figures are bad tomorrow that could be another 3-4% loss.

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I haven't been in since 2008. If it keeps dropping, I may get back in. I miss this whole ride up. But never lost like a lot of people though. My best advice is don't follow my lead. LOL

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Got out a week ago Monday. Figured that with the arguing going on in Congress and the various back and forth, we were in trouble and going to miss an agreement altogether. I was reading today that BNY-Mellon is going to start charging customers holding cash. NOT that I have to worry about that LOL --- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-ny-said-charging-for-big-cash-positions-2011-08-04

 

Also said that yeild on T bills are going negative?? Hmmm.... It will cost you money to loan money to the government. I wonder if that would be a - on your capital gains on your income tax??? Opens many new doors.

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I'm still in and will stay in. I moved all my stock market investments to Large Companies, with large dividends, that have significant overseas revenue (and keep money offshore), and have a record of doing better than average in downturns. I'll take the dividends and ride it out.

 

That said, no one should follow my lead. I don't need that stock market money any time soon, and have significant investments outside the market.

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I got out in 2008 and cut my losses right before I retired and started buying CD'S. Now my only losses are to inflation.I can live with that.

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I'm like you Jack on many things. I've just been also watching the DAX, FTSE, UKX, and NI225 also fall.

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We are still holding at 50-50 in investments.

 

50% stocks and 50% Ginnie Mae's and Treasuries. Most of the stock money is in oil and gold. Rest of it in high dividend stocks.

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I'm always in. I take a long term view and my investment plan keeps me 70% in stocks and 30% in cash. Or as close to that as I can keep it. As in the decline of 08 that cash is used to add to long positions. I recovered and prospered after the 08 downturn and expect to do the same here. Always try to learn from the past.

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Cindona,

My investement funds are through USAA and they will do fine. I am tickled with Tesla, but it has not dropped far enough for me to buy my last block. We are still way ahead, and hope that it does go down to where we bought initially. My problem isn't worrying about how low it will go or getting out. My concern is judging the bottom correctly or close to buy at best advantage. And that is luck anyway. I bought my first block at 17 and change, my second block at 22.55. It closed down today at $24.75, not low enough to buy my third block but may be the lowest and I should.

 

I have been really upset with Motley Fool giving Tesla investors grief ignorantly for the past two or three months. This morning before the crash they came out pro and did a 180 with this article:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/08/04/tesla-motors-big-surprise.aspx

 

Now before you read that as most would, they have ignored and scanned Tesla like many others and missed what was announced last mid year when Tesla made a deal with Toyota and Daimler to supply them, and buy the Toyota excess factory in Fremont California putting a bunch of Americans back to work. Now this is important about analysts, they are as prone to be know it alls as the common investor. In this case you have to get to the second half of the article before you see their weak attempt to say that things have changed with the Totyota deal when in fact I posted here that Tesla delivereed the Toyota Rav 4 protos to Toyota last November /December, and I also posted here about Tesla buying the Fremont Plant from Toyota in a big deal in mid 2010! As well as their deal with Daimler.

 

I am no big investor. I have only talked about investing here really twice. Once in 2005 that Apple was going to be able to run Windows when they announced they would switch to Intel chips the following year in early or mid 2006. They were 55 bucks a share! I chickened out, others may have listened to me. This time I felt the same as then but with Tesla, which I had been following since about 2003 (and I won't name the folks here that said they would never come to market etc. etc ad nauseum) I jumped in with both feet. Even today folks don't realize they brought the first production long range Hwy capable all electric to market in 2008 way ahead of the big auto makers. I still see people posting that no one is going to buy a car with 80 -100 mile range, when Tesla has 300 mile ranges, unlike the competition.

 

Anyway, it is my understanding to never sell low, only high, and that you haven't made or lost or broke even until you sell. So today's market is when to buy in my limited understanding of how it works. I am serious too. Warren Buffet gave those as his rules for buying and selling, and that makes it good enough for me. But I am hoping Tesla goes down a bit more. I will surely buy at 22.55 or lower. I am just worried this is as far down as it is going.

Edited by RV

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I have been in various index bond funds since the end of April. I will buy more of my one stock fund which I ride up and down regularly and pays .065 cents a share since 1993 or thereabout. Yes to those dividend funds. Can't beat them. As of today, since April the bond funds are up 4, 4, 5, 8 percent. Nothing beats inflation but these returns help for now.

Didn't get out because I thought bad things were going to happen, just couldn't handle the stress of being in the market and watching the pols compete for stupidity.

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<br />I'm always in.  I take a long term view and my investment plan keeps me 70% in stocks and 30% in cash.  Or as close to that as I can keep it.  As in the decline of 08 that cash is used to add to long positions.  I recovered and prospered after the 08 downturn and expect to do the same here.  Always try to learn from the past.<br />

 

Sell on the highs, by on the lows. Moved some when we hit 12,500, will move again when it feels like we've reached another bottom. long term approach is best.

 

Barb

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I got out about this time last year. My options strategies let me down, and that was my last, great investment attempt. I swore off equities at that point. Saved a lot of money and haven't lost a dime of it ever since!

 

Two weeks ago we put most of our nest egg into physical gold, primarily for protection against currency devaluation and inflation. The gains since then are just a bonus. We are anticipating a continued 'flight to safety' as the Euro-mess unravels and the US economy flounders for awhile...

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I got "mostly" out last week.

 

Now my brokerage firm want to try to charge me for having too much cash on hand

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Just received this note from our financial advisor today, sent to all his clients, not us specifically. Others might find it interesting. We've been working with him for about 10 years, he got us through '08 in pretty good shape and we have recovered everything lost then, so I have a lot of confidence in his opinion.

 

"A bad day on Wall street today. Many are wondering, “what should I do?, should I sell some things? Make some change?” The answer is … Maybe. Many people experienced a large decline in 2000, a recovery, and then another large decline, then another recovery. So it is natural to ask, “will this be another large decline, because I sure don’t want to go down a 3rd time. “ If you have thought that, then good, that means you are normal!

 

I am concerned of course about the market, but I am even more concerned that people may sell stocks here only to see the market recover (possibly). That would be devastating and very dangerous for your financial plan.

 

If you feel like this risk is too much, then what that tells me is that your long term asset allocation may be wrong, and we need to talk about that. I believe a key to a good long-term plan is having the right balance between stocks/bonds. It has been tempting to leave virtually everything in stocks the last 3 years as the market was going up. That may have lulled some into having a higher percentage of stocks than is appropriate. If you feel that way, then we need to talk, please call.

 

My opinion is that short term we are possibly in for more volatility, but it is not 2008 all over again"

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I moved from 30% to 50% cash the middle of last week, then to 70% on Monday at the open. No real insight, just wanted to protect my gains for the year. The one stock I hated to see go was Apple. Will look to get back in around $340. I did put a few percent back into TEVA and BAC late today. Probably need my head examined, they are both stinking up the place.

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Everyone that has posted here should be congratulated. Whether they are in or out of the market, they have paid attention to their assets. There is not a stock broker, fin. analyst, company that hasn't made a bad move many times. The key is paying attention. You can't sit back and just watch.

So Congratulations Everyone.

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Duke,

Don't congratulate me. I am sick! :angry: I heard the markets went down and since it usually takes a day or two for Tesla to react strongly it dipped down to 22.83 today before I saw fit to look and it was back up. I know I should have had a standing order but I do now in case there is a Monday morning profit taking session in the mid morning. THat was my fault. But if anybody looks up Tesla (TSLA,) and checks the prices for the past year and their opening IPO public prices, you'll see that while I didn't make the killing many did, my 5-12 dollar share profits from the first buy, and 2-7 buck a share profit since I bought the second batch at 22.50 beats the heck out of bank rates. I just wish it would go down once more because I have been waiting for this and now in hindsight will buy at 22.85 if it comes back down. Accck! Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa. (No not Catholic just like the latin phrase) :(

Edited by RV

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Different answers from different life cycle perspectives.

 

Like many, we've had out home values drop. We're lucky, as we're in a location-location-location sub area within San Diego, so our values have dropped a little less then 15% from the top. LOL! As I had felt for several years 'before the top', that the home vales were not in touch with financial reality. So, I feel we've actually come back down to an area more in line with reality.

 

On where we are now, my wife and I are still 'in', by about 65% of our funds. Those funds are a mix of 401K and individual investment accounts. We had companies that provided Roth 401K options early, and shifted all knew 401K's contributions over to this. My belief was that taxes would never be lower, and this last big nest egg of American funds, would be hit over the next few decades. We hope the Roth 401K's, will be harder politically to go after.

 

We shifted about 75% of our 65% still 'in', over to large companies with higher dividend paying history. And like Jack, large international foot prints. This is via a mix of DRIP individually owned stocks, and a ETF blend. We did this to primarily offset the devaluation of the dollar we saw ahead, and the compounding of future inflation we felt was coming too. Historically, these kinds of companies 'revalued' to the adjust for the changes in dollar value, and inflation. Sometimes it takes a trailing 12-18 months for the values to readjust to compensate. (Sort of like our view on RV's: Quality lasts in RV's, and I feel the same with with companies.

 

The balance of our 35% funds I've kept parked, with occasional 10% jumps into short term investments. Not real day trading, but I've been in and out of several short term investments in less then a month.

 

Next few weeks/months/years will be interesting, stressful, hopefully inspiring to get control, and probably down right scary for many. We've just crossed over a bridge to the wrong side, and one that is new to America and also the world. I'm going to keep my eyes open, and look for solid investment bargains, and jump in cautiously. The dollar just sitting in the bank is losing more then I care to afford to lose. We are both working, after my wife was 'on the beach' for 9 months in the local tech industry. I'm pretty stable in my job, her's is probably at a bit more risk. We'll move out retirement if needed, and ride things out until the waters calm. We were at about a 1 1/2 to 2 year retirement window. With some thoughts of me retiring now, and double dipping as a contract work. I think we'll just hunker down for awhile...

 

In??? Where else would you go? What other country has the ability to do what we do in this world economy? It is a world economy now, and we need to level the playing field to allow the middle class manufacturing base to slowly (decades, IMO) rebuild. Let's hope we can set aside all of the politics of the past, roll up our sleeves as a nation - and get it done...

 

Again, we are all in different spots in our life cycles, so different answers from different perspectives.

 

Best to you all, have fun, be safe,

Smitty

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Some here had talked about getting out of the stock market, and I am curious. Did you get out?....

 

It could be a -400 point drop today before the market closes. Scary.

 

Yes, we got out...back in 2002!! OK, we were a bit early...actually late, because we had lost 25% before getting out.

From 2004 to about 2007 we had 80% in bond, money market funds and 20% in Precious Metals and Natural Resource stock funds (Vanguard) and got very lucky with those funds! With only a 20% exposure we recouped our 25% loss and then some.

From then until now we have been about 95% in bond and money market funds. I did not trust the past 2-year bull rally, so stayed out and have been waiting for a significant correction such that stock valuations "match" the real economy which I think is still in a long run recession. I look forward to once again investing in stock funds and getting back to a diversified portfolio. Obviously these days I am smiling.

Edited by mcbockalds

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.....stock valuations "match" the real economy which I think is still in a long run recession. I look forward to once again investing in stock funds and getting back to a diversified portfolio. Obviously these days I am smiling.

 

I agree with you that we are in a long run recession.

 

And you SHOULD be smiling.....bet you sleep well..... :)

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We hold our stocks for income and none of them seem in trouble for any reason. I am currently working on a real estate deal so I sold some Muni bonds today while people were willing to pay more. If the real estate deal doesn't materialize on our terms, we'll put the money back on solid income stocks while they're on sale.'

 

Dick

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Like I said, I should have my head examined for adding to TEVA and BAC. Took my lumps today at the open. Still up 5% for the year, and 90% cash. APPL is not down enough to get back in. Hope I don't miss it.

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We hold our stocks for income and none of them seem in trouble for any reason. I am currently working on a real estate deal so I sold some Muni bonds today while people were willing to pay more. If the real estate deal doesn't materialize on our terms, we'll put the money back on solid income stocks while they're on sale.'

 

Dick

I think you are right to be looking for real estate. I bought a foreclosed home last year. Built in 2006 and I got it for just under $50 per square foot, after fixing it up. Rental income yields about 13% on my investment. I currently have offers in on 3 more, but 2 are short sales and they rarely work out. My target price is under $50 per square foot in an area that has a strong rental market. Unfortunately, I am out of cash to buy properties and have to use my home equity line of credit to make purchases. Still profitable, but riskier. Could pull cash out of either a Roth or IRA if I got into trouble with rates. Very difficult to get a mortgage on a rental property, and killer fees if you do.

 

If the Feds would loosen up restrictions on investing IRA money, and make it easier to purchase real estate for rental income, the housing market would bottom overnight. There are a couple of firms out West that will set up the legal framework to create an LLC that can act as a custodian for IRA funds that you can then use for real estate. Big fees, and looks a little questionable.

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Well since I was asked about Tesla, it did not go down as far as it did last Friday and I am hoping it comes down in the morning. What is making them stay higher than I had hoped, for a buy of my last block is that Motley Fool did a 180 after months of bashing them out of the ignorance of the analyst there of the difference between Tesla and the rest of the electrics. He was skimming their news not reading them. Now they change to glowing reports last Friday and even more so this morning, while separately this morning Merril Lynch changed on Tesla to a buy recommend and a 34 dollar target price and then goes on to rave about Elon Musk being the new Steve Jobs. :angry:

 

Here are three short articles about TESLA that came out this morning. I know it seems insane to hope for my own stock to go down, but it also may be my last shot at the lowest price so one more day, tomorrow, I watch and maybe I can buy happy or grudgingly a bit higher than I hoped. Buying at 24 and selling later at 34 or higher beats waiting until it hits 34 and regretting.

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2011/08/08/this-just-in-upgrades-and-downgrades.aspx

 

http://blogs.forbes.com/ericsavitz/2011/08/08/tesla-is-elon-the-next-steve-merrill-launches-with-buy/?partner=yahootix

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/285641-getting-aggressive-in-a-scary-stock-market-buy-the-innovators-at-deep-discounts?source=yahoo

 

You brought Tesla up Cindona. I am the least qualified to advise others to buy or sell, I just do what I do for me. I have only twice decided that I had to gamble in the market. Once with Apple when they announced they were going to Intel chipsets, and were at 55 a share, and I backed out because I was not a stock gambler, and this time when I learned from my Apple experience to follow my well researched years of following Tesla. I will buy one last block of Tesla but hope to get it cheaper than today. If you read the "experts" in the articles above those familiar with my posts about Tesla here since 5 years ago and more will for the first time see where the analysts finally did their homework. So wish me luck and a drop in my stocks for now.

 

I already got my real state but only my 5 acres and house here paid for 5 years ago or so, so we have only utilities to pay and no other debt. I consider that income producing as no note or rent is going out. So our funds are doing fine, they went down some but we are still ahead there, and way ahead on our Tesla, although I hope to be at a loss for a day or two on paper to make one more buy.

Edited by RV

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