mcbockalds

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About mcbockalds

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  • Birthday 09/15/1944

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  1. Wouldn't this article better fit in the thread "Will My Retirement Funds Last?" Cheers John
  2. Vanguards version of asking "Are You Still In?" It is pretty telling when Vanguard starts sending out emails to its customers about re-balancing (certainly not called market timing! - or is it?) with comments like: "Buying stocks now may actually run counter to what many prudent investors should be doing," Cheers John
  3. "Are You Still In?" Bonds? No! Vanguard Long Term Treasuries are down 12.6% YTD - with most of that fall coming since May. And yet with all the bond selling going on, the money is not being recycled into stocks. Hmmm. Cheers John
  4. Good chance you would be parking it near the top of the stock or bond market like folks buying a house in 2006 at the top of the housing bubble. Cheers John
  5. I grew up in Detroit and gave blood in the UP during the summers. August is better than June, unless you don't mind the little critters. Cheers John
  6. Perhaps you just need bigger shoes. Cheers John
  7. I forgot one of the most obvious things to do is get your rig into the "one shady site" in the park for the summer. And shade in the late afternoon is the most important. Of course everyone wants that site. Cheers John
  8. Have you decided not to use the state parks with their annual camping permit of $225 for out-of-state residents and $180 for in-state residents? Then you can camp with for an additional daily charge of $4 for electricity. Of course one problem is that you can only camp for 14 days out of 20 days in the same park. But some of them are pretty close to each other and you could rotate without having to drive too far. Cheers John
  9. No one has responded to your post, me neither, but this article by Bill Gross made me think of your post. Mostly what Gross' article reminds me of is that how well any of us do with our investments is a lifetime question, not a question of how well we are doing this year or even over the the past x years, but over a lifetime - just as one's character is not determined by a most recent immoral or moral choice, but over a lifetime of choices. Cheers John Cheers John
  10. david3639, Congratulations on moving to I Savings Bonds at a pretty good time. And congratulations on kicking your addiction. Treasury Direct is a good place to research the various US Bonds available. Today, the available interest rates are not very compelling. Actually the fixed rate on the 30 year I Savings Bond is 0%!! The current inflation rate which is added to the fixed rate is only 1.76%! So you bought in at a pretty good time compared to now (so did I and a friend I give financial advice to.) What grinds me about some US bonds that are directly affected by the inflation rate is the less than honest/accurate method used to estimate inflation. As I have said before, the inflation rate when estimated by the "1990 methods" gives a current rate of about 5%. So what is the actual, real world inflation rate? I sure don't know, but neither does the FED. However, their extra low estimate sure makes it easy for them to keep inflating the money supply with QE and thus forcing down market interest rates and thus discouraging bond investors and "forcing" some of them to move out of bonds and into the stock market which is nicely and temporally inflating the stock market. Cheers John
  11. So you know what the other 98% of our retirement portfolio has been doing?? I don't think so! Sometimes it is good to think before speaking. Cheers John
  12. The last time I bought any stocks (always in mutual funds) was Oct. 2008 and that took our retirement portfolio up to a grand total of about 2% in stocks! I sold about half of those same stocks in April 2010 - at a decent profit - and that took our stock portion down to close to 1%. Now it is time once again to take some decent profit and I did - stock portion now down to about 0.5%. Our mutual funds have a serious penalty for "frequent" trading so I can only buy or sell anything once every 3 months without paying the penalty. So if my stocks are higher 3 months from now I will likely sell some more (getting closer and closer to 0% in stocks). It is fun to sell HIGH and buy LOW (or sell on the way UP and buy on the way DOWN) even if it only happens every few years. And it will be fun to start buying stocks again in the future at falling prices - as surely as morning follows night. Cheers John
  13. I'm kinda glad they started the National Park system and the Interstate Hwy system ain't too bad if you want to drive efficiently. I prefer the less efficient but more scenic Blue Hwys, sometimes the federal govment is just too efficient. Cheers John
  14. True. But I refer to myself as a recovering economist. I got my degree studying under the rather well known, nontraditional, ecological economist, Herman Daly, who has only one arm. He used to say, "What this world needs is a good one-handed economist Cheers John
  15. My point is simple, risk management in stocks is neither as easy nor as safe as Jeremy Siegel implies in his book. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (1976) is a very good book. It helps you know how to present proper statistical presentations. On the other hand it helps you to recognize deception, and errors in analysis, reasoning and conclusions. Stocks for the Long Run is a decent book, but due to some statistical "errors" (?) it is not a very good book and yet it is the bible from which we get the idea of "buy and hold" for the long run. Cheers John